Recently, the Mailman School of Public Health from Columbia University has declared its update regarding the projection of COVID-19 infections. The university measures the total cases of COVID-19 infection in the US on the basis of social distancing measures on different levels and from that, they expect whether the number of cases at its peak or decline.
In the recent update from Columbia University, it was found that if there will be a 30% decrease in social distancing in the country then the number of infections due to COVID-19 will be on its peak by the end of April with the rise of new cases. On the other hand, if there will be a 20% decrease in social contacting then there would be a drastic change in the picture as there would be a rise in the infected people but it extends till mid-may. But the major point is that the number of daily cases with COVID-19 will rise to 30,000.
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These predictions from Columbia University help in advising the Coronavirus Task Force of White House, New York, CDC, and many other government sectors across the US. From these predictions, it was confirmed that the country will be going to see a huge number of growth in infected people and that’s why it becomes important for the government to enhance the capacity of hospitals and ICU at the same time.
The researchers also said that this information can’t be the same for every area as when the infection rate will be at its peak, some areas have different peaks at different times, while the social contact reduces to 30%. The model developed by the Researcher team at Columbia involves numbers of deaths and delivery, population changes through cities and state areas, and such things as emergency department capacity. You can check the interactive diagrams and regular forecasts from the model over the website of Columbia.
This has been one of the recent updates of forecasts by public health professionals, epidemiologists and medical researchers that forecast the effect on the taxation of medical services (not to mention frontline workers), the relaxation of social distancing steps that now have catastrophic implications for the expansion and deteriorating spread of COVID-19.
The other research institute MIT also predicted a similar rate of infection from the social contacting relaxation measures in the country. The MIT also predicts for the exponential explosion if the proper steps were not taken on time. Due to all these research and government strictness, some of the states start implementing restriction relaxations to avoid growing COVID-19 infection rate, although the consensus of knowledgeable analysts and scholars indicates that such rollback is too early to continue.